Will there be a shakeup in F1 2022? | Thank Frankel it’s Friday

Actually, were it not for the new regulations, I’d probably not even be writing this now, because we’ve known what’s going to happen in every F1 season for quite a long time now: Mercedes will win the Constructors’, and Lewis the Drivers’ title; and the fact it didn’t work out quite like that last year says more about the extraordinary circumstances in which the final race was held – which literally no one could have predicted – than any inherent flaws in the form book.

This year however? It looks very different indeed. In fact if you believe all the hype, propaganda, ill-informed opinion and misinformation that’s out there you might well believe that Ferrari are going to cruise to victory, with Red Bull a distant second and Mercedes battling it out with Haas and Alfa Romeo to get on the back of the grid. But that’s not what’s going to happen.

There are two significant things that need factoring in, the first that Mercedes always underplays its potential. I’m not sure who it thinks it’s fooling because everyone on the grid is very aware of the phenomenon. Yet every year we hear ‘we’re not where we want to be, we’re on the back foot, yes we did say exactly that last year and the year before but this really is different’, swiftly followed by yet another Constructors’ Championship of which there have been an unprecedented streak of eight in a row. And counting. We know also from GPS data that the Benz drivers weren’t using anything like maximum speed on the straights. It may be that’s because it can’t eliminate the dreaded high speed ‘porpoising’ or it may be that the they don’t want anyone else to know just how fast the car really is. Or both.

But if Mercedes seems always to ‘lose’ winter testing, more often than not it is Ferrari that wins it. Were there a championship, it would have won it more times than anyone else in recent years. There have been so many seasons that have started with the Scuderia as favourites, only for the predicted pace to have disappeared come race day, so I’m not yet in the least certain that Ferrari is the team to beat, despite their impressive apparent pace and reliability. But make no mistake, the red cars will be faster relative to the rest of the field than they were last year.

And then there’s Red Bull. Of all the teams I saw testing, these were the guys who seemed to suffer the least porpoising and they wound up fastest too. It’s true that teams tend not to like showing their true pace in testing, but at some point you have to put your foot down because otherwise, it’ll not just be your rivals who don’t know how fast your car really is. And that Red Bull is rapid. Consider also that Max, on top of all his talent and merciless driving style, has acquired the confidence bestowed on all newly minted World Champions. I don’t think he’ll be even quicker, because that’s hard to imagine, but I do think he’ll be more consistent and make fewer mistakes because seven seasons of pressure has now been released. 

And then there’s the Newey factor: Christian Horner complained long and loud about the Mercedes side-pods, but the truth is that there’s no one on earth better at exploiting a rulebook than Adrian Newey, no one in the paddock you’d rather have on your team come new regulation time. And… Adrian is the only technical director in F1 who was in the sport the last time Ground Effect aero was in play, and you just can’t buy that knowledge.

Further down the field, I expect McLaren to remain the fourth best team, for Aston Martin to make a little progress and for Alfa and Haas still to be at the back, but not necessarily in that order.

But who will ultimately wind up on top? I do think Mercedes probably does have some aero issues so the big questions are how will they compromise the car and how long will they take to fix? If the answers are ‘not much’ and ‘not very long’, I’d still back them to take ninth title, with Lewis outpointing George but by nothing like the margin he enjoyed over Bottas. If not, there’s likely to be a hell of a back end to the season because the other thing you have to remember is that no one develops a racing car like Mercedes. So even if they’re nowhere in Bahrain, which I don’t expect, don’t write them off. If they’re still nowhere come Spa, that’s another matter. But don’t anticipate it.

So it’s cards on the table time. I think Ferrari will be far stronger than last year, winning several races thanks in no small part to its exceptional driver line-up. But I don’t think it will beat Red Bull. And I think Mercedes will come right and finish on a high. Don’t forget either that Russell is likely to do a far better job than Bottas ever managed. So for the Constructors, I’d go Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, for the Drivers I’d go Max, Lewis then George. But the truth is that, like you, I really haven’t got a clue. Which, two days before the first race of the season, is just how I like it to be.

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.