Uncertainty has returned to F1 – and that’s all any fan could wish for

The only issue over those initial five races was his first retirement in two years, when the RB20 suffered a brake failure early in the Australian Grand Prix. Otherwise, Verstappen had been imperious – winning by 22 seconds in Bahrain, 13 in Saudi Arabia, 12 in Japan and almost 14 in China, where he also won the sprint by 13 seconds.

At that stage, another season of Verstappen/Red Bull domination beckoned following on from a record-breaking 2023 when the team won 21 of 22 grand prix, and the Dutchman 19 of those en route to becoming a three-time F1 champion.

No one could have foreseen what has since unfolded, namely the continued rise of McLaren, the re-emergence of Mercedes, and the complete collapse of Sergio Pérez, whose form has dipped to such alarming levels (scoring just 28 points in the last eight grand prix, compared to Verstappen's 141) that it is seriously threatening Red Bull's defence of its constructors' championship.

Despite signing a new one-plus-one deal in early June – a guaranteed seat for 2025 with the option to continue for '26 – Pérez's shocking slide led to suggestions he would be axed over the upcoming summer break.

In a surprising twist, the Mexican's future was discussed at a meeting of Red Bull's senior management on Monday 29^th July, after which team principal Christian Horner announced to all at the team's factory in Milton Keynes that Pérez would continue for the remainder of the campaign.

This could now play into McLaren's hands, as suggested recently by CEO Zak Brown as he felt an under-performing Pérez had aided his team in closing the gap on Red Bull following its superb start to the season.

After the first five races, in which even Pérez delivered with four podiums, McLaren was 99 points adrift of Red Bull. That gap is now just 42 following a further nine grand prix.

Assessing his team's constructors' title chances, Brown said: “It’s going to be dependent upon Pérez, at the end of the day, because you have to assume Max is going to be first, second or third at every race, and probably more first than thirds.

"Sergio underperforming is what has opened the window for us. If we have the same points gain we’ve had the last few races, the balance of the year, we’d get the job done.”

McLaren arguably could, and should, be even closer to Red Bull, likewise Lando Norris to Verstappen, with the gap between them 78 points with 10 races remaining.

Norris, who scored his maiden grand prix victory in Miami in May, has had the opportunities to add to that tally in the eight races since, but by his admission has made too many errors to have seriously hauled in his close friend.

That friendship was severely tested in the Austrian Grand Prix at the end of June, when the duo captivatingly duelled for the lead, only to collide, sparking punctures on both cars. Verstappen managed to return to the pits for fresh rubber, going on to finish fifth; Norris sustained too much damage to his car as he limped back to the garage and retired.

Harsh words, in particular from Norris, were aired in the immediate aftermath, only for a period of reflection, culminating in the duo contacting one another and clearing the air ahead of the British Grand Prix a week later.

That race has proven the bedrock for a run of four without a win for Verstappen, his longest drought since late 2020, and whilst seemingly in a comfortable position, he recognises that is far from the case.

"The car, at the moment, is probably not the quickest in the race," said Verstappen. "It's about limiting the damage, trying to be as close as I can be every single time, and that's what we have been doing lately.

“Of course, next year, I just hope we can find a little bit more performance because it will make our lives a bit easier."

As to his championship lead, he added: "It's never comfortable. There are always things that can go wrong or can happen to you, so every weekend you need to be in top form."

From Norris' perspective, he knows the issues he has to address over the summer break if he is to have any hope of taking the fight to Verstappen and at least ensuring McLaren can continue to hunt down and overhaul Red Bull.

“I just need to reset," he said. "I’ve given away a lot of points over the last three or four races because of stupid stuff, mistakes and bad starts. I’ve just not clicked as I’ve needed to."

Remarkably, it is team-mate Oscar Piastri who has been more consistent. Over the last three races, the Australian has scored 45 points to Norris' 43, which includes his own maiden victory in Hungary.

It is why, with two drivers in the fight compared to one effectively at Red Bull, McLaren can feel confident of its chances in the constructors' championship that would see Mercedes in second, narrowly behind McLaren, if the season had started in Canada.

After two and a half years of struggle working with the current aerodynamic regulations that were introduced at the start of 2022, Mercedes has finally found a redemptive development path which has seen it win three of the last four races going into the summer break.

George Russell's victory in Austria was fortuitous given the scrap between Verstappen and Norris that opened that particular door, but Lewis Hamilton's at Silverstone was on merit, and additionally memorable given the outpouring of emotion when he crossed the line to end a 56-race drought stretching back to late 2021.

In Belgium, it should have been the first Mercedes one-two since the end of 2022 but for Russell's disqualification for his car being overweight, allowing Hamilton to secure another win, albeit again on merit given the performance of the W15.

As for Ferrari, after appearing as if it would be Red Bull's closest challenger this term – with Carlos Sainz taking advantage of Verstappen's misfortune in Australia, and Charles Leclerc winning on home ground in Monaco, the introduction of a major upgrade two races later in Spain has severely set back the Scuderia.

It remains in the constructors' championship hunt, 63 points behind Red Bull, but will need to return to form with a vengeance after the break if it is to rekindle its ambitions.

The overall picture is at least a fascinating one. That degree of uncertainty as to who will take pole positions, race wins, and the titles has returned to Formula 1, and that is all any fan could wish for. Roll on the final 10 races – after we take a much-needed pause, of course. 

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images