Max Verstappen’s stirring victory in Brazil – perhaps the best of his career so far – has sucked the wind out of Lando Norris’ always slim drivers’ world championship hopes. There’s now 62 points between the pair with three races to play, which means Verstappen could even wrap up his fourth consecutive crown in Las Vegas a week next Saturday night. It’s never over until it’s over, but for Norris to claw back such a deficit at this stage would take something quite extraordinary.
Instead, the focus of these final races in the 2024 Formula 1 season will fall more intensely on battles for constructors’ positions, and two in particular: which team will become champion, and which can be top of the second half of the table – sixth, in other words. Let’s take a look at how the teams are shaping up ahead of the run-in.
F1 is a team sport, not simply an individual pursuit, and it would be wrong to dismiss the constructors’ crown as a mere consolation. Especially in the case of McLaren, which hasn’t grabbed one since Mika Häkkinen first became drivers’ champion in 1998. That’s astonishing when you think about it.
McLaren sits in pole position, but after a testing few weeks at the US, Mexican and Brazilian Grands Prix, its advantage is only 36 points over Ferrari, which won two of those three races, with Red Bull 49 off the top spot. Since the Dutch Grand Prix, Lando Norris has claimed five of his seven pole positions for the season, but has only converted one into a victory – in Singapore. In São Paulo, his race was a mess of errors, and team-mate Oscar Piastri, while dutifully playing the team game to support Norris’ scoring opportunities, has been a touch off the boil in recent races.
The duo now have a job to do for their team. Given their qualities, it would be a major surprise if they did let the teams’ championship slip – but might this unexpected season have another twist before it’s done? Without the distraction of the drivers’ championship, their task has been simplified. A championship would complete the remarkable story of McLaren’s turnaround in the past 18 months from woeful underperformer to ultimate pacesetter.
The weather spoilt Ferrari’s purple patch in São Paulo and there’s some fear the SF-24 won’t thrive in low temperatures at the Las Vegas night race. But, in the wake of Charles Leclerc’s fine win in Austin and Carlos Sainz Jr.’s in Mexico, Ferrari could well complete 2024 as the in-from team in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. The team will need a favour or two from McLaren’s pairing to close and then surpass that 36-point gap, but Leclerc is driving beautifully at the moment.
His defence against Verstappen at Interlagos was the only one Max faced all day and fourth was a poor reward for his fine efforts. As for Sainz, personal pride will leave him determined to end his time at Ferrari on a high note, before he joins a Williams team existing at the blunt end of the grid. Like McLaren, Maranello hasn’t won a constructors’ title for an age either – in the red corner’s case, 2008. A final push and some silverware would be just the momentum Fred Vasseur must desire before Lewis Hamilton’s much-vaunted arrival for 2025.
Strange to describe a Verstappen win as against the run of play, but that’s what São Paulo represented and it was largely thanks to the Dutchman’s brilliance in the rain. In other words, not indicative of true form. Red Bull might still rally to claim its hat-trick of constructors’ titles, but with Sergio Pérez failing to unlock the RB20 anywhere near the level of Verstappen, it’s unlikely. So, perhaps the focus in these final races will shift within Red Bull to preparations for 2025.
We’ve said it before and still he’s hung in there – but surely this time Pérez is facing the end of his time at the team. Although a driver change is only one item on a long job list facing Christian Horner and his engineers, if the slump in 2024 isn’t going to turn into serious decline next year.
In Brazil, Alpine grabbed an opportunity for a surprise double-podium to leap from ninth to sixth in the standings. The renewed warmth between Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly after years of frost between the old friends was a pleasing side-story – but the significance of the result to new team principal Oliver Oakes counted for much more. Millions more, in fact.
You could argue Alpine don’t deserve to be sixth after such a dire season and you’d probably be right. But there’s absolutely every chance the Anglo-French team won’t keep that position anyway. Both Haas and RB, the second Red Bull team, are within a scant five-point span of sixth. With so much at stake in terms of cold, hard revenue, this three-team scrap is ripe for someone to step up and make all the difference.
Who will it be? Ocon is in the strange position of fighting for Alpine against the Haas team he is about to join. The Frenchman will race in the moment, as F1 drivers always do – but would he be too disappointed were the Haas drivers to beat him to the punch? As for Nico Hülkenberg and Kevin Magnussen, who was forced to step down in Brazil through illness, both are leaving the team at season’s end. Hülkenberg will soon turn his attention to the Audi project at Sauber, while Magnussen… well, he’ll probably be looking to a fresh start in racing. The Dane drove fabulously well in Mexico and if this is it for him and F1, he won’t want to go without one final spark.
Motivation won’t exactly be a problem for the RB pair either. Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda will both believe they can make a case to claim Pérez’s seat in the A-team for 2025, and these final three races are cast-iron opportunities to prove their worth. Individually and combined, making the difference between a disappointing eighth and a much more representative sixth for RB would help their cause no end. Christian Horner and Helmut Marko will be watching intently.
Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.
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