Five big questions sparked by F1’s driver moves

Remember too the added context that all the seat-swapping is for 2021, the deals playing out before a single wheel has turned for the 2020 season – which might start in July, pending the management of a global pandemic. All three drivers still have to complete their contracts with their current teams, if racing does indeed take place this year, which might be particularly awkward for Ricciardo, given Renault boss Cyril Abiteboul’s curt response to the Australian’s defection to McLaren. Right now, it’s all a little surreal.

Still, it’s also a welcome distraction from reality. On that point, let’s have a look at some of the big questions the shake-up has posed about F1 next year, when hopefully life has settled down into some form of ‘new normal’.

Has Ferrari signed the right man?

Yes, it probably has. But Carlos Sainz Jr. has clawed his way into one of the most coveted positions in sport by the most circuitous of routes. Still only 25, the Spaniard has already logged up 102 F1 starts – but has also been rejected by both Red Bull and Renault. Christian Horner and Helmut Marko lacked faith in promoting him from Toro Rosso to the Red Bull ‘A-team’ following his graduation from an unremarkable junior single-seater career, and his subsequent switch to Renault lasted all of one season. Yet now he’s a Ferrari driver.

A fairer reflection highlights what a well-rounded racing driver Sainz really is, and his stock rose considerably last year thanks to his accomplished form for a reviving McLaren. Fast, intelligent, a savvy racer, multi-lingual, experienced, adept at dealing with pressure… no wonder Ferrari has judged he’s just what it needs right now.

Also, as odd as it sounds, Sainz might have won his prize drive by not being too good… Ferrari has placed all its chips on the soaring talent of Charles Leclerc, tying him to an unprecedented five-year contract following a single season in which he effectively ended Vettel’s spell at the team. Leclerc is Ferrari’s man, and as history shows, the team’s philosophy is to centre its focus on one driver at a time, be it Michael Schumacher, Fernando Alonso or Vettel himself. Sainz is the perfect foil to Leclerc: quick and consistent enough to qualify and score well, while also nicking the odd victory, but unlikely to threaten Leclerc’s team leader status. Think Valtteri Bottas to Lewis Hamilton. Whether Sainz has it in him to be more than ‘the good number two’ remains to be seen.

Was Ricciardo ‘too good’ for Ferrari?

On paper, the seven-time grand prix winner is surely a better prospect than Sainz. Ricciardo’s gamble on quitting life as Max Verstappen’s Red Bull team-mate for a big-money drive at Renault backfired last year, but his reputation as one of the fastest and best racers on the grid remains intact. In the right car, the guy could be a world title contender. But Ferrari has now overlooked him twice: not only last week, but in 2018 when he was considering his options away from Red Bull.

The reality is, all the reasons Sainz makes sense for Ferrari are exactly why Ricciardo does not. From the moment he stepped up to Red Bull in 2014 and outperformed four-time world champion Vettel, the 30-year-old has shown he’ll never accept number two status – which is why he felt compelled to quit a team was beginning to centre around Vertstappen. Ricciardo is feisty despite that big smile, is aching for a shot at a world title and, at his age, knows time is against him. Ricciardo vs. Leclerc would have been juicy – but probably too juicy at a time when Ferrari desperately needs a degree of tranquillity if it is to finally end Mercedes’ hybrid-era domination. So yes, somewhat bizarrely, the Honey Badger probably is ‘too good’ for Ferrari right now.

Has Ricciardo taken a step back to go forward?

Not necessarily. He’s turning his back on a manufacturer works team that has paid him £40m over two years, to join one that must buy its customer engines and is a shadow of its former ‘grandee’ self. But it’s also true that Renault has under-delivered since its return as a full-blown F1 team in 2016, that there’s few signs of race-winning form on the horizon and that its commitment to an F1 future will forever be under review in an increasingly troubled climate for automotive industry. In contrast, McLaren has shown what appears to be deep-rooted green shoots of revival under a fresh and highly competent technical management. On pure form, which is all that counts to Ricciardo over money at this stage of his career, a switch from Renault to McLaren can be considered a move sideways rather than backwards.

But will the Woking team ever offer him a genuine shot at the world title he craves? That’s another question, the answer of which lies somewhere within the new budget-capped technical regulations due to be introduced in 2022.

Will Vettel now retire?

His only realistic option to remain in F1 appears to be the Renault drive Ricciardo has left vacant, even if Mercedes boss Toto Wolff paid him the compliment of saying “naturally we must take this development into consideration” in the wake of his Ferrari split. It seems highly unlikely that Mercedes would sign Vettel, unless Hamilton chooses to retire himself… The six-time world champion is out of contract at the end of this year too, but is expected to extend rather than end his time at the team.

For Vettel, a step back into the midfield to a Renault team not in the best spring of health probably doesn’t sound enticing. It really depends on how hungry he is to stay in F1. The German has those four titles, a tally of 53 victories only bettered by Schumacher and Hamilton and perhaps most importantly three very young children. He’s still only 32, but Vettel has been an F1 driver for 13 years already and appears to have a healthy sense of perspective about what counts most in life. His statement last week that he “will take the time I need to reflect on what really matters when it comes to my future” perhaps hints at retirement – and that would be the sensible solution for a man who had taken something of a battering in the past few years. But drivers are a long time retired and even the most intelligent, among which Vettel would certainly count, struggle to walk away when the bell tolls.

Could Alonso really return to Renault?

He’s 38, will have been out of F1 for two years by the time the 2021 season starts and comes with all kinds of baggage… but a third stint at the team with which he won his two world titles cannot be ruled out.

Fernando Alonso’s samurai warrior spirit, technical understanding, race-craft, vast experience and sheer star quality would surely make him an asset difficult to dismiss. Other options for Renault include Nico Hülkenberg, whom the team let go just last year, and a clutch of junior drivers on its books, none of whom look ready to step into a high-pressure race seat at a works team just yet. In comparison, Alonso’s case looks compelling.

But would he really want to come back to the team in its current state? The short answer, given his apparently unquenched F1 ambition, is he’d probably bite Abiteboul’s arm off.

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.