6 predictions for the 2025 F1 season

Verstappen won’t win a fifth consecutive title

Writing off Max Verstappen and Red Bull would be foolish. Yes, the team that came close to a near-whitewash in 2023 alarmingly lost its way with the tricky RB20 last term – yet Verstappen was close to faultless as he consolidated his fast start to secure a fourth consecutive title. But yes, we reckon he won’t win a fifth this time around.

He’ll be in contention, surely. But without the guiding hand of Adrian Newey for the first time in 20 years, Red Bull faces a daunting challenge to reclaim its lost pre-eminence now the momentum has swung to reigning constructors’ champion McLaren and resurgent Ferrari. In the fourth and final year of the current ruleset, before the next generation of F1 car is introduced for 2026, heavy changes in performance from season to season are unlikely (although of course not impossible).

If Red Bull falls short, Verstappen will make the difference, because he’s among the best we’ve ever seen – but as two-thirds of last season showed, he’s also now vulnerable. Even he will likely struggle to stem the tide as a new champion steps forward.

Leclerc will ‘do a Prost’

The smart money for the championship appears to be on Lando Norris, after learning from his error-strewn breakthrough in 2024. The trouble is, McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri is also in the mix, and in the outwardly laidback Australian there’s a ruthless streak reminiscent of Verstappen. Team chief Andrea Stella will have a job on his hands this year managing his fired-up aces, each of whom will be determined to gain the upper hand.

While both Norris and Piastri are well rounded, their natural competitive instincts make McLaren a potential tinderbox just waiting for a spark. They are likely to fall out at some point. That’s why we’re predicting Charles Leclerc as a more likely champion, on the assumption that Ferrari will pick up from where it left off in 2024: both Leclerc and Ferrari scored the most points for drivers and teams from the Dutch Grand Prix onward.

Back in 1986, Alain Prost swooped in and ‘stole’ the world title as Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet squabbled in the faster Williams. Such a scenario is ripe for repetition, but this time with McLaren finding itself on the other end of the outcome.

Hamilton will win races for Ferrari

A record-breaking eighth title? That’s a tall order for 40-year-old Lewis Hamilton. But we reckon predictions that he’ll faceplant in the wake of his sensational move to Ferrari are well wide of the mark. Yes, Leclerc will be too quick for him in qualifying. But again we look back to the 1980s to find an example of how Hamilton’s first season in red might turn out. In 1984, Niki Lauda quickly worked out he couldn’t live with the searing pace of an incoming Prost – so he focused on maximising his performance in the races. And that won him a third world title, by just half a point.

Hamilton can take some inspiration from his late and much-missed mentor. While his 2024 season was officially his worst in F1, the seven-time champion still conjured up magic on race days when opportunities arose. His record-extending ninth British Grand Prix win, that ended a long and painful drought was classic Hamilton.

And how about that Mercedes sign-off drive in Abu Dhabi? Reinvigorated by the challenge of settling into F1’s most famous team – and for the first time driving for a one not based in Britain – will bring out the best in Hamilton, especially with his old friend Fred Vasseur providing the stoic, good-humoured support he needs. Beating an in-his-prime Leclerc is probably too much to ask. But there’s every reason to be optimistic that Hamilton can rack up some wins in red this year.

Mercedes will make it a four-way scrap

This is where the hype really comes from: the strength in depth that F1 in 2025 promises. Having outperformed Hamilton in their final season together, George Russell will now lead Mercedes into the final year of what has been a troubled era for the team, and should absolutely find himself in the mix. If four teams and their drivers are all capable of winning races – which is the expectation – Russell has the armoury to keep himself in contention deep into the season, and perhaps even pull off a surprise.

Antonelli and Lawson to score podiums

As for Russell’s rookie team-mate Kimi Antonelli, it’s impossible to predict exactly where he will fit in. But, one thing that doesn’t appear to be in doubt is pace. So as long as Mercedes provides the competitive platform it should, podium finishes should be a realistic target for the 18-year-old Italian. Whether more is achievable, well that’s a bigger question. Antonelli’s rookie status will at least give him some grace to learn – although you never get long to acclimatise in F1, especially in a top team.

Liam Lawson replaces Sergio Pérez at Red Bull as Verstappen’s team-mate. Helmut Marko has already stated the Kiwi shouldn’t expect to match the Dutchman (is this really helpful?)  so the expectation seems to be for Lawson to settle quickly and start scoring consistently to aid the team’s constructors’ campaign.

Yuki Tsunoda has every right to feel aggrieved that he was overlooked for the seat, so it’s down to Lawson to now justify that decision. From what we’ve seen so far, he has the self-belief and resilience to live in the same garage with one of the greatest (and hardest) drivers of all time. Podiums should be a realistic expectation Lawson will back himself to match.

Alonso will hang in there for 2026

Newey’s arrival at Aston Martin is, of course, significant, but whether even F1’s greatest designer can make the difference to allow Fernando Alonso to win again during this campaign is a lot to ask. The team backed itself into a concerning development cul-de-sac last term and has a lot of ground to make up to haul itself back into podium contention again, never mind expectations of victories.

Alonso knows only too well the task at hand, but now aged 43, he will defiantly race on in the hope and expectation that Newey will make the difference he’s been hired for when the new ruleset kicks in next year. Add in the input of Enrico Cardile, formerly of Ferrari, and the steadying management hand of Andy Cowell – the architect of so much that made Mercedes great in the previous era – and there are certainly no excuses. Aston Martin must at least make progress from its underwhelming double-digit points tally last year. Alonso will keep the faith, especially now Newey is on board.

Predictions are as dangerous as over-hyped expectations, but as ever, optimism abounds at this time of year. The first indication whether such positivity is justified will come at the pre-season tests, which take place once again in Bahrain, on February 26^th-28^th. But, on the face of what we know, we’re hardly sticking our neck out to back the prediction that a classic campaign is really more likely than not.

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.